PREDICTION TIME!!
The big question everyone NHL fan is asking themselves right about now is "will my <insert favorite team> make the playoffs?"
I am no different.
Last year I predicted the Jackets to miss the playoffs and finish 10th in the West. That was actually much better than they ended up. Even my biggest inner fanboy couldn't convince myself to pick that team to make the playoffs - not after that lackluster offseason.
But this year...? After this offseason..? Well that's a whole 'nother bag of pucks.
Let's GAMEBOX it!
OFFENSE
12 of the top 16 scoring teams in the NHL made the playoffs last season. Those teams all averaged at or above 2.73 goals scored per game. The Jackets finished 24th with just 2.54 goals scored per game.
With the additions of Jeff Carter, James Wisniewski and Vinny Prospal to go along with the likes of Rick Nash, RJ Umberger, Antoine Vermette, Derek Brassard, Grant Clitsome and Fedor Tyutin it's ABSOLUTELY reasonable to think the Jackets will average at least 2.73 goals scored per game.
Any contributions they can get from young players like Calvert, Savard, Atkinson, Mayorov and Johansen is a bonus and should only push that average upwards.
DEFENSE
12 of the top 16 defending teams in the NHL made the playoffs last season. The top 16 finished with a GAA of 2.78 or lower. The Jackets finished 26th allowing 3.05 goals per game.
This is a bigger question mark here than the offense. The Jackets did make some changes letting Stralman and Hejda walk while bringing in Wiz and Martinek. Some may think that is a wash but I think it's a solid upgrade *IF* Martinek can stay healthy -- especially in terms of puck movement and offense. As they say - a good defense is a gerat offense. A guy like Methot must pick up Hedja's slack as a stay at home guy.
I'm not confident this group can finish top 16 in overall defense but I also don't think this group needs to be top 16 to be a playoff team. However, they've got to keep their GAA under 2.85 and finish at worst in the top 20 of the league. I think they are capable of this AS long as they stay healthy, get average goaltending and above average offense.
SPECIAL TEAMS
Interesting that only 8 of the top 16 powerplay teams in the leauge made the playoffs last year. The top 16 converted on 17.5% or better on their PP chances.
The PK was a little better as 10 of those top 16 teams made the playoffs. The top 16 killed off 82.6% of their penalties.
The Jackets finished 29th on the PP converting at 14% of their chances and 22nd on the PK killing at 80.2%.
While Special Teams may not be as critical as overall offense/defense it still plays a very important role -- especially when you are as bad as the Jackets were last season.
This CBJ train is really going to have to derail to not improve upon that 29th ranked PP. This lineup now has the skill capable of finishing in the top half of the league. Now they just have to gel and make it happen on the ice which I have confidence they will.
On the PK things get a little more complicated. I can see some improvement but not a giant leap. Your best PK'er is your goaltender and going into the season, goaltending is the biggest question mark on this squad. They also have to be more disciplined and stay out of the box. They had the 5th most minors in the league last season.
GOALTENDING
What else can be said here that hasn't already been said? Mason has got to be better that his .901 Save% and 3+ GAA over the past two seasons. It's a MUST.
If his 4-0 record, 1.98 GAA and .934 Save% over the preseason is any indicator then he's on the right track.
Look... I get it's not all on Steve Mason. All of the above needs to be better to. The offense, the defense and the special teams. But Mase plays a large part in that as well. There are times when he needs to bail out his team. He also cannot afford to let in soft goals that deflates his team. Above all he needs to make the BIG save at the end of games to preserve points.
X-BOX
Here is an interesting stat -- 8 teams finished in the top 16 in both offense anddefense. Those were VAN, BOS, NYR, PIT, SJS, PHI, CHI & PHO - all playoff teams. Any teams in particular stand out to you there? How about the Stanley Cup finalists in both Vancouver and Boston. It's safe to say that if you are just average or better in both categories, you're probably playoff bound.
Here are a couple of other x-factors that stand out to me.
- Can't have a December slump. From Nov 26th last year to Jan 11th the Jackets went 6-14-3 -- that CANNOT happen!
- Must do better against the division as they were just 8-11-5 last season.
- Jackets did well on the road last season finishing 17-16-8, that must continue.
- They must also continue to dominate the East like they did last year with a 11-4-3 record.
- Every point counts. Got to win those OT and shootout games. The Jackets only won 5 of 13 shootouts last season. That's a lot of points left on the table.
- The Jackets have the best depth they've EVER had but even with that said, they MUST avoid the long term injuries to key players.
- If goaltending struggles through the first 20 games -- Howson has to get aggressive to bring in some kind of help.
So now let's turn our attention to the big board to see if the Jackets are a playoff team this season:
..and there you have it -- I (aka 'the survey') have the Jackets finishing 7th in the Central.
San Jose, LA and Vancouver are the only sure fire locks for me. Some may say what about Detroit? Here's the thing - I think the Central is going to be incredibly tight this season. I can see all 5 teams in the playoff hunt. There will be no "gimme" games this year for any team in that division which will translate to less points for Detroit and everyone else. In fact, forget the Central -- from top to bottom I think we may see tightest Western Conference ever. I think the talent level is that spread out.
I threw Minnesota at 4 because every year a team comes out of nowhere and I think they could potentially fill that role this season. If not them, somebody is going to surprise (hopefully us!).
As for the Jackets - I can see them finishing anywhere from 5th to 10th. I see them starting slow and getting stronger as the season progresses. The offense will have to carry this team to the promiseland as that is their strength. Mason doesn't have to be a world beater - just average.
I just have to think that with the skill additions, the depth, the core just now coming into it's prime and with the youth pushing the veterans the way they are -- this team is going to break through. Unlike last year, I don't think the stars need to align for this team to make the playoffs -- this team is built to with stand some adversity. I'm also encouraged by Howson's aggressiveness and if say, the goaltending falters, I don't believe the 'new' Howson will stand idly by and not address it.
I admit that this time around there is some fanboy homerism going on with this prediction. I went back/forth with the Jackets as a playoff team... At the end of the day, I just said screw it.... This offseason has just been too fantastic not to pick this team for the post season!
....and what's more bad-assery than that (tip of hat to 'DavesNotHere' for the term) - I truly believe they are capable of it!
-LTL
