The talk of Florida St. potentially leaving the ACC for the Big 12 has seemingly caught the national media by surprise. However, mysterious realignment oracle Honus "The Dude" Snead of West Virginia site 'Eer Insider has had the jump on the situation since January. He joins Homerism for a podcast to give his account of how this upheaval came to be and how he sees it playing out from here on out.
The Dude and I tackle a ton, including:
- The origins of the unhappiness in the ACC.
- Potential dance partners for Florida St. should the Seminoles defect, including Clemson, Georgia Tech and Miami.
- What role ESPN's TV contract with the ACC has played in the latest drama.
- Who the key players have been behind the scenes.
- The timeline for a resolution on the Seminoles' status.
(Subscribe to Blatant Homerism's Podcast through iTunes. Please rate and review the show if you get the chance, too. Thanks.)
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Less than a year ago, the Big 12 looked about as stable as a three-legged chair.
Texas and ESPN appeared to be running roughshod over the rest of the league in an effort to make sure the Longhorn Network didn't turn into TV's version of just about any Kevin Costner movie released since 1995. Texas A&M had already jumped ship, and Oklahoma's ill-fated attempt to defect to the Pac-12 set in motion a chain of events that eventually sent Missouri scurrying to the SEC.
OU president David Boren had committed his fair share of boners in the conference realignment process up to that point, but he was correct in his emphasis on achieving "stability" in the Big 12. Conference leadership used more punitive measures to get there than goodwill and promises made with fingers crossed, but it has worked. Even though the Big 12 lost Missouri in the process, it now has 10 member schools that have essentially committed to the league for the next 13 years through a grant of rights extending through the duration of a lucrative media deal.
And, lo and behold, Florida St., one of college football's best brands, is contemplating jumping from the prestigious ACC to become a member of a conference that was once notorious for its dysfunction. If so, it could put the Big 12 in the enviable position of cherry-picking some other programs from the Southeast to add to its "electronic footprint" in the parlance of new league commissioner Bob Bowlsby.
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| "Some players just give you gas." |
In the wake of Wednesday's news that Bob Stoops had suspended Jaz Reynolds, Trey Franks, Kameel Jackson and Quentin Hayes indefinitely, Jake Trotter of ESPN's SoonerNation came up with a telling tidbit that speaks to the substantial attrition suffered by the Sooners since August.
Roster turmoil: By my count, at least 19 #Sooners have transferred, quit the team or been suspended since August.
— Jake Trotter (@Jake_Trotter) May 10, 2012
Despite losing some talented prospects such as Brandon Williams, taken individually, none of these former Sooners really qualify as difference-makers.
In the aggregate, however, you get a roster that is thinner than Scott Thompson's CV, at least for the short term. Even hardcore OU aficionados are struggling to name the tight ends currently in Norman (early enrollee Taylor McNamara and JUCO transfer Brannon Green). Meanwhile, in Kenny Stills, the Sooners have one receiver on campus who has caught a pass in an actual game.
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| The Sooners may be playing without their Jaz hands in the fall. |
For a program with as much visibility as Oklahoma, suspending three wide receivers with starting experience is going to have a massive headline effect. An announcement like the one the Sooners made Wednesday night that Jaz Reynolds, Trey Franks and Kameel Jackson definitely produces an unavoidable kind of "oh shit" reaction for an OU fan.
If the three aren't reinstated – and I don't exactly understand how Jackson can be suspended when he has already announced that he's leaving the team – it would leave Kenny Stills as the only Sooner tight end or receiver with a catch heading into the 2012 season. In fact, 64 percent of OU's catches from 2011 would be gone if you include players who either graduated or transferred.
I get that, but I just don't see this as a huge deal.
For starters, as I mentioned, the fact that Jackson is suspended makes no sense to me, seeing as he told the world days ago that he intends to transfer to Texas A&M. (Without having discussed it with the Aggies, but that's a story for another time.) He showed flashes of becoming a solid contributor last season as a freshman working out of the slot, but I have to assume that it will be up to another program to find out how good he can be.
In the last two years, we've learned that while conference realignment produces juicy rumors by the bucketload, there's a whole lot talk and not nearly as much action. One day, the Pac-10 is destined to become college football's first superconference, the next it's, well, not. The Big 12 is supposedly dead, and then hours later, David Boren is bragging about the "handcuffs' tying the league together.
The current rumor du jour has the Big 12 trying to pluck Florida St. and Clemson away from the ACC. The theory goes that the Seminoles and Tigers have tired of the league's basketball focus and conference leadership kowtowing to the North Carolina schools, with the additions of Pittsburgh and Syracuse breaking the camel's back. As the Big 12 prepares to cash in on a new TV deal, FSU and CU can supposedly earn a far sweeter payout by hopping conferences. Likewise, the impending bonanza to come from college football's new playoff adds another dimension from both a financial and competitive standpoint.
Although this rumor just got some national attention in the last few days, there have been similar whispers floating around message boards for nearly a year. West Virginia fan site Eer Insider, which on Friday helped touch off the latest expansion speculation, claimed back in January that the Big 12's raid on the ACC was already in the works.
If you want to put your faith in Hornlover69 and anonymous bloggers with unnamed sources, be my guest, this being the Internet and all. In reality, we've seen throughout this realignment process that even well-sourced information is often wrong and predictions about what will happen tend to suck, no matter where they're coming from.
(Personally, I look at it all as something like playing a sports geek board game.)
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Beyond the Bets, one of my favorite gambling/handicapping sites around, published a fantastic article Tuesday on the process for setting college football regular season win totals. The BtB post came on the heels of an article posted a week earlier by our friend Todd Fuhrman of Caesar's Palace on how he determines an opening number. Together, the articles provide insight into the approaches of both a sharp gambler and a bookmaker when it comes to futures.
Todd's basing his number on how he thinks gamblers will bet. BtB is looking to find a baseline against which you can evaluate the totals set by guys like Todd. Not surprisingly, though, their approaches don't differ that much.
I figured I'd try out the BtB system on OU and see what we come up with. Let's take it step by step.
1. Research
Yeah, this kinda doesn't end for me vis-á-vis this blog. Moving on.
The Oklahoma Sooners had a strong showing in the 2012 NFL Draft, with a total of seven players selected. Here's a rundown of where OU alums are headed and what kind of situation they are walking into.
*Ryan Broyles, WR (2nd Round, Detroit Lions)
Despite suffering a season-ending late in his senior year, Broyles arguably went higher than a number of draftniks expected. Broyles will almost certainly play as a slot receiver in Detroit and should end up competing for time right away. The Lions already have the best receiver in football, Calvin Johnson, playing on the outside. Broyles should complement Megatron and Titus Young nicely and eventually give Matthew Stafford a reliable target to help keep defenses honest.
*Donald Stephenson, WR (3rd Round, Kansas City Chiefs)
Stephenson tested this spring far better than he ever played at Oklahoma. Maybe a Missouri homecoming is what he needs. He should receive a hospitable welcome by Chiefs, who are woefully thin at offensive tackle. Don't be shocked if you see Stephenson starting at right tackle on opening day in K.C.
The 2012 NFL Draft is set to kick off Thursday night, and a slew of Oklahoma Sooners are hoping to hear their names called at some point over the weekend. Daniel Mogollon of NFL Draft Bible and AllMediaNY.com checks in for a podcast to break down their prospects.
Dan and I discuss the outlook for Ronnell Lewis, Ryan Broyles, Frank Alexander, Donald Stephenson, James Hanna, Jamell Fleming and Travis Lewis.
(Subscribe to Blatant Homerism's Podcast through iTunes. Please rate and review the show if you get the chance, too. Thanks.)
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With spring practices in the books, the true offseason has set in for the Oklahoma Sooners. Jake Trotter ESPN's SoonerNation joins Homerism for a podcast to break down the biggest stories of the spring and look ahead to the fall.
Jake and I discuss:
- The impact of the return of Mike Stoops.
- How the secondary will shake out.
- R.J. Washington's breakout potential.
- Landry Jones' mindset heading into his final season.
- Kenny Stills' inconsistency.
- An improved offensive line.
- And more.
(Subscribe to Blatant Homerism's Podcast through iTunes. Please rate and review the show if you get the chance, too. Thanks.)
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While the Big 12 has gained a reputation as the conference where it's almost impossible for quarterbacks not to thrive, the league's hit rate on producing star signal callers in the NFL leaves a lot to be desired. Undeterred, NFL general managers and draftniks have pegged Baylor's Robert Griffin III, Oklahoma State's Brandon Weeden and Texas A&M's Ryan Tannehill as three of the top QB prospects in this year's draft, with RG3 and Tannehill likely to be selected within the first 10 picks.
The questionable history of the league's quarterbacks on the pro level is pretty much indisputable. Why, on the other hand, presents a far more nebulous problem.
Last week, Jason McIntyre of The Big Lead raised the issue of the dearth of Big 12 QBs in the pro ranks, suggesting that teams think long and hard about using a high pick on one in this year's draft. McIntyre doesn't really offer an explicit argument as to the "why" part of the story, but his note at the article's conclusion indicates that he views Big 12 QBs as products of a league in which wide-open offenses run roughshod over tissue paper defenses.
